12-Month Home Price Inflation Down To 2.0% In April

May 14, 2013

12-MONTH HOME PRICE INFLATION UNCHANGED IN MAY AT 2.0%

In May, for a second consecutive month, the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 2.0% from a year earlier, the smallest 12-month increase since November 2009. By way of comparison, the Case-Shiller home price index of 20 U.S. metropolitan markets was up 10.9% from a year earlier in March (the latest available reading). In Canada, the price gain over the 12 months ending in May exceeded the cross-country average in seven of the 11 markets surveyed for the national composite index: Quebec City (6.5%), Calgary (5.8%), Hamilton (5.8%), Winnipeg (4.6%), Edmonton (4.0%), Toronto (3.9%) and Halifax (2.3%). The 12-month increase matched the average in Ottawa-Gatineau (2.0%) and lagged it in Montreal (1.9%). Prices were down from a year earlier in Victoria (-4.1%) and Vancouver (-3.2%). For Vancouver it was the tenth straight month of 12-month deflation.

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

The May composite index was up 1.1% from April. It was the ninth time in the 15 years of index data collection that May prices were up 1.0% or more from the month before. The previous occurrences were in 2002, in 2004 through 2007 and in 2010 through 2012. The May monthly gain was 1% or more in seven of the 11 markets surveyed: Calgary (2.3%), Edmonton (1.9%), Hamilton (1.4%), Montreal and Winnipeg (1.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (1.1%) and Toronto (1.0%). Lesser monthly increases were recorded in Quebec City (0.8%) and Vancouver (0.7%). Prices were flat in Halifax and down from the month before in Victoria (-0.8%).

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™

The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

Metropolitan areaIndex level
May
% change m/m% change y/y
Calgary166.842.3 %5.8 %
Edmonton171.321.9 %4.0 %
Halifax142.650.0 %2.3 %
Hamilton140.481.4 %5.8 %
Montreal150.901.2 %1.9 %
Ottawa141.481.1 %2.0 %
Quebec178.340.8 %6.5 %
Toronto148.201.0 %3.9 %
Vancouver166.870.7 %-3.2 %
Victoria133.76-0.8 %-4.1 %
Winnipeg193.631.2 %4.6 %
National Composite 6154.29 1.1 %1.7 %
National Composite 11155.39 1.1 %2.0 %

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion.

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economy & Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada

Teranet - National Bank House Price Index™ thanks the author for their special collaboration on this report.

1 Value of Dwelling for the Owner-occupied Non-farm, Non-reserve Private Dwellings of Canada.