Home Prices Up 0.1% In December

January 14, 2014

In December the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 0.1% from November. With this advance the index has returned essentially to its all-time high of October. Since in December 2012 the index was down from the month before, the slight increase in December 2013 resulted in an acceleration of 12 month home price inflation to 3.8% in December from 3.4% in November. The gain from a year earlier exceeded the cross-country average in three of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed for the index: Calgary (6.5%), Vancouver (5.5%) and Toronto (4.9%). It lagged that average slightly in Hamilton (3.7%), Edmonton (3.6%) and Winnipeg (3.4%) and lagged it significantly in Quebec City (1.5%), Ottawa-Gatineau (1.0%) and Montreal and Halifax (0.4%). Victoria prices were down from a year earlier for a 10th consecutive month (−4.0%).

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

lthough the composite index was up from the month before in three of the last four months of 2013, prices in all four of those months were down on the month in a majority of the 11 markets (eight in September, October and December, seven in November). In December the monthly advance of the composite index was due solely to the contributions of Edmonton and Vancouver (0.6%) and Toronto (0.4%). For Edmonton the gain was the first in five months, for Toronto the first in four months. December prices were down from the month before in Winnipeg (−0.1 %), in Calgary and Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.3%), in Quebec City (−0.4%), in Montreal and Hamilton (−0.6%), in Halifax (−1.2%) and in Victoria (−1.7%). Vancouver was the only market whose prices reached a new high in December. Toronto prices are almost back to their peak of last August. For Montreal and Quebec City, on the other hand, December was respectively the sixth and fifth month without a monthly increase. Ottawa-Gatineau's monthly decline was its fourth in a row, Victoria's its third in a row.

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™

The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca

Metropolitan areaIndex level
December
% change m/m% change y/y
Calgary171.67-0.3 %6.5 %
Edmonton172.160.6 %3.6 %
Halifax140.43-1.2 %0.4 %
Hamilton146.17-0.6 %3.7 %
Montreal148.71-0.6 %0.4 %
Ottawa141.98-0.3 %1.0 %
Quebec175.64-0.4 %1.5 %
Toronto154.050.4 %4.9 %
Vancouver175.030.6 %5.5 %
Victoria133.92-1.7 %-4.0 %
Winnipeg193.66-0.1 %3.4 %
National Composite 6 158.72 0.1 % 4.2 %
National Composite 11 159.29 0.1 % 3.8 %

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. 

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.


By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economy & Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada