Home Prices Up 0.3% In February

March 12, 2014

In February the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 0.3% from January. For the second month in a row, prices for Canada as a whole rose to an all-time high, though new records were set in only two of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed - Vancouver (for a fourth straight month) and Calgary (for the first time since September 2007). Since in February 2013 the index was down 0.2% from the month before, the increase of February 2014 resulted in an acceleration of 12 month home price inflation to 5.0% from 4.5%. The gain from a year earlier was well above the cross-country average in two of the 11 markets, Calgary (9.6%) and Vancouver (7.7%). It was slightly above the average in Toronto (6.1%) and Edmonton (5.3%), equal to the average in Hamilton (5.0%) and below it in Winnipeg (3.5%) and Montreal (1.9%). In Halifax (−4.7%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.6%), prices were down from a year earlier for a second consecutive month. In Victoria (−3.4%), home prices have been down from a year earlier for 12 months now. Quebec City posted its first 12 month deflation in 15 years (−2.0%). It is the first time since October 2009 that there is price deflation in at leat four of the regions covered.

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

In February the east-west dichotomy became more pronounced than ever. Home prices were up from the month before in all five markets of Western Canada - Calgary (1.1%), Vancouver and Victoria (0.9%), Edmonton (0.6%) and Winnipeg (0.5%). The rise in Victoria ended a run of four consecutive monthly declines. For Vancouver it was the 10th consecutive monthly increase. In the six markets of central and eastern Canada, the only monthly rise was in Montreal (0.7%), the second advance after six months of flat or declining prices. Prices were down 0.1% in Toronto, making February the fourth month without a gain in the last six. For Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.8%) it was the sixth decline in a row, for Quebec City (−1.7%) the sixth in seven months. For Halifax (−1.7%) it was the third decline in a row.

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™

The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.


Metropolitan areaIndex level
February
% change m/m% change y/y
Calgary174.341.1 %9.6 %
Edmonton173.180.6 %5.4 %
Halifax135.69-1.7 %-4.7 %
Hamilton145.97-0.5 %5.0 %
Montreal149.970.7 %1.9 %
Ottawa139.29-0.8 %-0.6 %
Quebec173.53-1.7 %-2.0 %
Toronto154.67-0.1 %6.1 %
Vancouver178.470.9 %7.7 %
Victoria134.700.9 %-3.4 %
Winnipeg194.840.5 %3.5 %
National Composite 6 159.99 0.3 % 5.6 %
National Composite 11 160.41 0.3 % 5.0 %


The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. 

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economy & Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada