n the years over which data have been collected for the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™, its monthly rise in each of the six months from September through February has averaged between 0.1% and 0.2%. In September of this year the rise was 0.3%. It was the third consecutive month in which the change in the composite index exceeded the historical average for the month in question. However, the dispersion was the narrowest in six months: prices rose in only six of the 11 metropolitan markets surveyed. The gain exceeded the countrywide average by a wide margin in Calgary (1.1%), in Vancouver (0.9%), in Toronto and Halifax (0.7%) and in Winnipeg (0.5%). It was close to the average in Quebec City (0.2%). Prices were flat in Edmonton and down from the month before in Hamilton (−0.4%), Montreal (−0.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−1.1%) and Victoria (−1.8%). It was the 10th month in a row in which the composite index did not fall. That countrywide performance was equalled in only one market, Edmonton, followed closely by Calgary with nine straight monthly increases.
Since in September 2013 the composite index was flat from the month before, this September’s rise meant that 12 month home price inflation accelerated 0.4 percentage points to 5.4%. That countrywide average was greatly exceeded in Calgary (9.5%), Toronto (7.4%) and Vancouver (6.5%) and slightly exceeded in Hamilton (5.6%). Unsurprisingly, the resale market in these four urban areas is balanced or even tight. The 12-month increase was more moderate in Edmonton (5.1%) and, especially, Winnipeg (2.6%), Halifax (2.3%), Montreal (0.7%), Quebec City (0.5%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.1%). Prices in Victoria were down from a year earlier (−0.5%). The 12-month rise in Quebec City follows seven consecutive months of 12-month declines. The composite index has been up from a year earlier for 60 months now, since September 2009. The only one of the 11 markets to match that run is Toronto, though Hamilton comes close with 58 months.
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