Home Prices Up 0.1% In October

November 13, 2013

In October the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 0.1% from the month before, after remaining unchanged in September. Because prices in October 2012 were down from the month before, this October's slightly monthly rise resulted in an acceleration of 12 month home price inflation to 3.1% from 2.7%. As in September, only four of the 11 metropolitan markets covered in the index showed 12-month price rises exceeding the cross-country average, a first since June 2012. The four were Calgary (6.7%), Hamilton (4.6%), Toronto (4.1%) and Quebec City (3.8%). The 12-month rise lagged the average in Vancouver (2.7%), Edmonton (2.2%), Winnipeg (2.0%) and Montreal and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.9%). Prices were down from a year earlier for an eighth consecutive month in Victoria (−0.5%) and a third consecutive month in Halifax (−0.7%).

Teranet – National Bank National Composite House Price Index™

Since the average October monthly gain over 15 years of index data collection has been 0.2%, this October's slight rise suggests a market cooler than usual. Moreover, prices rose in only three of the 11 markets. It was the fourth time in 15 years that October prices were up from the month before in no more than three markets. All four of these Octobers have been in the last six years, the previous occurrences being 2008, on the eve of the last recession, and in the price corrections of 2010 and 2012. The three rising markets of this October were Vancouver (1.1%), Calgary (0.9%) and Halifax, whose 1.0% gain ended a three-month run of declines. Prices were down from the month before in Montreal and Winnipeg (−0.1%), Toronto (−0.2%), Edmonton (−0.3%), Quebec City (−0.4%), Ottawa-Gatineau (−0.5%), Victoria (−0.6%) and Hamilton (−0.8%).

Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™

The historical data of the Teranet – National Bank House Price Index™ is available at www.housepriceindex.ca.

 

Metropolitan areaIndex level
October
% change m/m% change y/y
Calgary172.690.9 %6.7 %
Edmonton171.45-0.3 %2.2 %
Halifax141.281.0 %-0.7 %
Hamilton146.66-0.8 %4.6 %
Montreal150.48-0.1 %0.9 %
Ottawa142.65-0.5 %0.9 %
Quebec176.71-0.4 %3.8 %
Toronto153.76-0.2 %4.1 %
Vancouver173.001.1 %2.7 %
Victoria138.73-0.6 %-0.5 %
Winnipeg193.69-0.1 %2.0 %
National Composite 6158.59 0.3 %3.2 %
National Composite 11159.34 0.1 %3.1 %

 

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is estimated by tracking observed or registered home prices over time using data collected from public land registries. All dwellings that have been sold at least twice are considered in the calculation of the index. This is known as the repeat sales method; a complete description of the method is given at www.housepriceindex.ca

The Teranet–National Bank House Price Index™ is an independently developed representation of average home price changes in six metropolitan areas: Ottawa, Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver, Montreal and Halifax. The national composite index is the weighted average of the six metropolitan areas. The weights are based on aggregate value of dwellings as retrieved from the 2006 Statistics Canada Census. According to that census1, the aggregate value of occupied dwellings in the metropolitan areas covered by the indices was $1.168 trillion, or 53% of the Canadian aggregate value of $2.207 trillion. 

All indices have a base value of 100 in June 2005. For example, an index value of 130 means that home prices have increased 30% since June 2005.

 

 

By:

Marc Pinsonneault
Senior Economist
Economy & Strategy Group
National Bank of Canada